Top newspaper report-The search for Fashola’s successor.

As the various parties round up alliance talks and alignments before the all important 2015 general election, one state that would surely be of interest to keen watchers of the nation’s politics is Lagos State, the financial hub of the country. Since the state controls more than 50 percent of economic activities, the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has not hidden its desire to control the state. That has, however, proved to be difficult because the progressives have firmly been in control of the state since the advent of the current dispensation in 1999. From Senator Bola Tinubu to the current occupant of the office, Babatunde Raji Fashola, the PDP has found it extremely difficult to make any headway or to effectively
challenge the dominance of Tinubu’s hegemony. And that is why as the various aspirants line up on the block, permutations and speculations are rife on which way the pendulum would swing in a post-Fashola era.

Apart from the presidential elections which naturally should be the focal point of 2015 and which, for now, remain unpredictable, especially with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) not showing any signs of relinquishing power and the recent registration of the All Progressive Congress (APC), the Lagos race has also been generating a lot of interest.

The incumbent, Fashola, will have completed his eight years reign of two terms in office, just like his predecessor in office; but the question on the lips of every Lagosian today remains, “Who will succeed Fashola come 2015?”

The deciding factors

Fashola’s emergence in 2007 remains a key factor to reckon with and many see it as a pointer to what may be expected. But the political dynamics may have changed dramatically with the emergence of APC; the agitation by Christian leaders that the state should give consideration to a Christian governor in 2015; and the feeling among the APC leaders that the party should allow free and transparent primaries.

In 2007, against all odds, Tinubu settled for an ‘unknown’ Fashola, who was his chief of staff, as his successor, taking his political protégés by surprise. Of course, his choice didn’t go down well with other aspirants. Those who could not stomach the disappointment left the Action Congress (AC), as the party was known then, to pursue their ambition, while others settled for political appointments.

In retrospect, however, Tinubu’s choice, on a closer look, was strategic. In 2002, shortly after the resignation of his former Chief of Staff, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, Tinubu brought in Fashola to occupy the vacant post. Within the period, it was more like a father and son relationship. Fashola, coming from the private sector, learned the ropes of governance gradually, working closely with Tinubu and was a key influence to some of the public policies of that administration.

Little did Fashola know that he was being tutored for higher challenges. Suffice to say that the period provided an avenue to know his way around the Lagos House, Ikeja, seat of government.

Six years down the road, Fashola has proved doubting Thomases wrong and in turn has earned Tinubu the respect of his political allies and even the opposition. Now, the biggest headache of the chief ‘kingmaker’ in Lagos will be to, yet again, introduce another ‘Fashola’ to Lagosians, a ‘Fashola’ who will not only continue in the strides already achieved but seek to surpass it. Or would he be forced by circumstances to allow the various aspirants to go to the field and test their popularity?

But it is becoming increasingly clear that the APC leadership would not want to risk being tagged a party of imposition when the stakes are too high. As Tunde Arije, a political analyst, recently noted, the APC would win more souls if the aspirants who want to use its auspices to contest election are subjected to primaries. “The advantages are enormous than for the party to repeat what happened in 2007 when a candidate, out of the blues, was imposed on the party,” he said.

The top contenders

Not taking anything away from other aspirants still seeking consent from “family and associates” to join the race for the highest office in Lagos, fresh facts made available to Daily Independent show that five top contenders are among those favoured to get the nod to steer the ship of the state after Fashola.

Senator Ganiyu Olanrewaju Solomon (GOS)

He surely does not need any introduction in the political scene in Lagos. GOS, as he is fondly called, is the current Senate Minority Whip in the Upper Chamber of the National Assembly. He cut his teeth in the political terrain of the state, first as chairman of Mushin Local Government Area, a step that has led to the rise of his political career over the years. He was elected into the House of Representatives where he represented Mushin Federal Constituency (I) for four years before he was elected as Senator representing Lagos West Senatorial District at the Upper Chambers of the National Assembly.

He represented the Lagos West Senatorial district at the Senate since 1999. However, Solomon may have done his governorship ambition no good when he recently went to press with his intention to succeed Fashola, which made many of the leaders in state uncomfortable. GOS had been quoted to have said, in an interview he granted to an interactive programme on national television, that he was the best candidate to take over after Fashola. “I have the experience and I am convinced that I will take the state further from where it is now,” he had said.

But little did he know that it was perhaps a wrong move to have come out with his ambition long before the elections. But GOS remains a force to reckon with, and with his experience, might just have earned himself another slot to occupy the Senate for another four years after 2015.

Obafemi Kadri Hamzat

Many have described him as the next Fashola in the making. Cool, calm and cerebral, Commissioner for Works and Infrastructure in Lagos, Dr. Hamzat, might have warmed his way to the hearts of leaders of the party and most especially Tinubu and Governor Fashola. Daily Independent gathered recently that Hamzat has emerged as front-runner in the race and currently stands a high chance of carrying the flag of the Action Congress of Nigeria (APC) in the 2015 governorship election.

A source close to the top echelons of the APC said Hamzat is a favourite to step into Fashola’s shoes and that for now, he implicitly has the nod of his boss, Fashola.

The source said: “Dr. Hamzat is highly favoured by both Fashola and our National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu; he is the best bet among others eyeing the seat of power in Lagos and this is because he has worked with Fashola in the last six years and knows the terrain very well.”

Hamzat was former Commissioner for Science and Technology during the tenure of Tinubu as Governor for four years and retained the position during the first term of Fashola’s tenure. His loyalty to the party and his bosses earned him a higher calling as Commissioner for Works and Infrastructure at the commencement of the second term of Fashola in May 2011, a position he holds till date.

Hamzat is also the third son of Oba Mufutau Olatunji Hamzat, ‘Olu’ of Afowowa, who is also the Lagos West Senatorial District leader of the APC. His chances, the source said, are buoyed by the fact that, “Like Fashola, he (Hamzat) is not much of a politician, neither does he engage in group alliance of any sort that could be a distraction.” The source also dismissed fears that Hamzat’s chances could be marred by the fact that he’s not an indigene of Lagos State.

“Yes, he might be from Ogun State, but his father is a well respected APC chieftain and a former legislator and commissioner in the Second Republic in Lagos State. His mother is a Lagosian, that should not be much of a hindrance to his chances,” the source added. But some are already saying that he may well be another Fashola in the making because, according to them, “the party has not really benefitted from the government since 2007”. That may work against him because of the party leaders’ insistence that they are not ready for another “tight fist” governor.

Dr. Muiz Banire

Also in contention for the plum job is Dr. Muiz Banire.

Banire is a former Commissioner for Environment, who enjoyed a four-year spell each under Tinubu and Fashola respectively, and is currently the Acting National Legal Adviser of the APC. Banire is considered as a very smart, intelligent and strong party man with a reputation of being a strong grassroots mobiliser. The diminutive politician is also from the western axis of the state as Solomon. Cumulatively, he has put in 12 years in the service of Lagosians as commissioner. He is said to be strongly favoured by those who want a grassroots politician at the helm in 2015. And his supporters, mostly from the Tinubu’s cabinet, are said to be waiting by the wings to force the party to organize primaries. He is a strong contender.

Adeyemi Ikuforiji

Just like Banire and Hamzat, Adeyemi Ikuforiji, the Speaker of the House of Assembly, has always been in the picture of succeeding Fashola. A strong loyalist of Tinubu who never shied away from checkmating the excesses of the executive, Ikuforiji might have problem with the ongoing case of money laundering leveled against him by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). The case is, however, seen by his supporters as political, orchestrated by his enemies to put him in negative light.

The source added: “Ikuforiji is not new to the governorship race; the party leaders trust him and he is a Tinubu loyalist to the core, but the money laundering allegation does not do his chances any good. Guilty or not, the shadows of the allegations will haunt his ambitions and may just be the ace for any of his opposition to present as an alibi to nail him.

“He has done a good as the speaker and don’t forget that before the 2011 election, he stood solidly behind the party when some members in the House were not committed to the party.” Some observers are also of the view that his closeness to Tinubu would be an added advantage when the chips are down.

Lekan Pitan

Former Commissioner for Health and Education in Lagos, Dr. Lekan Pitan, is also a strong candidate who might be fancied as a standby choice should Hamzat, for any reason, opt out of the race. Pitan is viewed by observers as a light-weight aspirant, what he however has going for him is that he served in the same cabinet when Tinubu was governor of the state and Fashola, Chief of Staff. “Pitan is a trusted associate as well as a protégé of Tinubu; he is intelligent, and has paid his dues, but his undoing might be that he has not been in the scheme of things recently and the party leaders may not find it comfortable giving him the nod,” one source added.

PDP reacts….

But the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) says it’s not unmoved by whoever the APC fields in the 2015 gubernatorial elections. Spokesperson of the PDP in Lagos, Gani Taofik, said the chances of the PDP this time is brighter due to what he describes as the “anti-masses policies” of the Babatunde Fashola’s administration.

He continued: “Our chances are bright; their (APC) chances have gone very dim because of the very anti-masses’ policies. It is very unfortunate that Lagosians have come to know them very late as pseudo democrats. They have used the Awoism mentality to deceive Lagosians all the while, but as a matter of fact, there is nothing in their blood that can show that they are democrats. A democratic government would not go after the poor people in the community.

“The programmes after the original Alliance for Democracy(AD), because I must concede that there was an original progressive party in AD, then about 2002, that party was destroyed by the current national leader of APC and then a bastardised AD came in place and then metamorphosed into AC, they hibernated in AC before they became ACN, now they are APC, so you will see that they are uncomfortable with their brand because a brand that is sellable should be the pride of a marketer. Where a marketer keeps rebranding every now and then, know that the product is not good enough or not acceptable anymore.”

On the top five candidates likely to be fielded by the APC, Gani said, “We are not moved or interested in whoever they are going to bring forward. We are not going to be distracted by that gimmick again. If you know the modus operandi of their national leader, the man who imposes candidates at all levels in the party, you won’t be surprised. But we won’t be distracted, whoever they want to bring forward, they should bring forward, all we know is that Lagosians are wiser.”

With the 2015 battle in Lagos already shaping up, so many questions will run in the minds of those interested in what becomes of Lagos. Will Tinubu pull another stunt as he did in 2007? If he does, will it backfire or turn out to be a discovery of yet another ‘whiz kid’ in the making? Will the PDP eventually break the jinx and wrestle a 16-year stronghold of the progressives in Lagos? One thing, however, is certain: Lagosians will be looking forward to a candidate with a pedigree to match, if not surpass, Fashola’s achievements. How it will play out, only time can tell.